Goldman Sachs CEO says chances of US entering recession have fallen

The CEO of the US bank Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, stated this Monday that the chances of the US economy entering a recession have fallen compared to the situation a year ago, as he advanced in an interview with the ‘Hong Kong Economic Journal’. In this way, the manager has referred to the figures advanced by his own entity’s economists, who this September reduced the twelve-month probability of the United States entering into recession to 15% compared to the estimate of 20% made. in July. The probabilities of a ‘soft landing’ for the world’s leading economy would be reinforced by the resistance shown in the face of persistent inflation and the subsequent increase in interest rates undertaken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to confront it. Furthermore, this revision was precisely due to the cooling of inflation and the strength of the labor market. Despite this, Solomon has considered that inflation will remain entrenched, although he believes that the Fed will not touch rates again this year, although it could increase them once or twice next year. These statements would coincide with the annualized growth of the North American GDP of 4.9% during the third quarter, which would mean an expansion much higher than the 2.1% of the second tranche of 2023, as reported at the end of October by the Office of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce in its first estimate for the period. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private investment in inventories, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investments. These improvements were partially offset by a decline in non-residential fixed investment and an increase in imports. However, the first estimate of the GDP data, the Office of Economic Analysis recalled then, is based on incomplete data “subject to future revisions” by the agency.