GlobalSamuel García: will he become President against all odds?

Samuel García: will he become President against all odds?

The governor (licensed?) of Nuevo León, Samuel García Sepúlveda has already taken all the steps to become a presidential candidate. And he has done it by crushing his classic speech: he is always capable of coming from behind – from very far back – and winning.

This is what he did, he tells us again and again, in 2021, when against all odds he won the governorship of Nuevo León: He started in fourth place, a position in which the polls did not give him more than 12 percentage points and placed him far from the leader, Clara Luz Flores. She but she reached, surpassed and won.

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The story changed drastically after March 24, 2021, when PRI member Adrián de la Garza – also a candidate – made public a video in which the brunette candidate appeared talking with the then-defenestrated Keith Raniereleader of the NXIVM sect, who was sentenced to 120 years in prison after being found guilty of crimes such as child pornography and trafficking in women.

The images – whose existence Clara Luz had denied – demolished the former PRI member’s candidacy. But it was not de la Garza who capitalized on Morena’s collapse, but rather Samuel. Then the tricolor candidate would try to bring him down by applying the same recipe (publishing a “scandalous” video). But it didn’t work for him and perhaps it helped him consolidate his victory.

Reviewing the history, there seem to be clear elements to construct a diagnosis different from that of the royal emecista: Samuel is more of a lucky guy for whom circumstances paved the way for him to reach the winners’ podium..

All proportions kept, Samuel is a driver who has been awarded the race winner’s trophy, but not for having driven better, changed tires strategically or boldly overtaken his rivals in difficult corners, but for being the beneficiary of a clash between the leaders, intentionally caused by one of them.

It has its merit, of course, to be there to build one’s own victory from the misfortune of others.. But it is necessary to be clear about how the possibility of crossing the finish line in the first place was not built, at least in this case, from the talents of the competitor, but depended exclusively on the destructive action of third parties.

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Can the events of 2021 be recorded once again and, thanks to them, see Samuel García become president? Without a doubt: in the market of probabilities, such a scenario can condense before our eyes although today it seems highly improbable.

This would require, however, a conjunction of facts. The most important of them would be the revelation of a monumental scandal around Claudia Sheinbaum. A scandal enough to lead several million voters in the country to repent.

But not only that: It would also require extremely clumsy action on the part of the opposition coalition and its candidate, Xochitl Galvezso as not to be the ones who capitalize on the disaster of who today holds the leading position.

I insist: that could happen. The probability of witnessing this is, in my opinion, very low, close to zero.. But it exists and, given Samuel’s status as a lucky guy, it could be… of course.

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But it is necessary to be clear: Samuel is today the incarnation of Michael Burry, the doctor whose story is collected in the film The Big Short (The Big Short, in Spanish): a bold character betting against the market and common sense.

It remains to be seen if, like the disruptive individual whose vision became a reality – against all odds – after the 2008 stock market crash, The story of the phospho-phospho governor also ends up surprising the public.

Happy weekend!


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